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Kostas Nikolopoulos I. Forecasting With The Theta Method. Theory and Applications


The first book to be published on the Theta method, outlining under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods This book is the first to detail the Theta method of forecasting – one of the most difficult-to-beat forecasting benchmarks, which topped the biggest forecasting competition in the world in 2000: the M3 competition. Written by two of the leading experts in the forecasting field, it illuminates the exact replication of the method and under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods. Recent developments such as multivariate models are also included, as are a series of practical applications in finance, economics, and healthcare. The book also offers practical tools in MS Excel and guidance, as well as provisional access, for the use of R source code and respective packages. Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications includes three main parts. The first part, titled Theory, Methods, Models & Applications details the new theory about the method. The second part, Applications & Performance in Forecasting Competitions, describes empirical results and simulations on the method. The last part roadmaps future research and also include contributions from another leading scholar of the method – Dr. Fotios Petropoulos. First ever book to be published on the Theta Method Explores new theory and exact conditions under which methods would outperform most forecasting benchmarks Clearly written with practical applications Employs R – open source code with all included implementations Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications is a valuable tool for both academics and practitioners involved in forecasting and respective software development.

8553.35 RUR

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Harry Mark Petrakis The Odyssey of Kostas Volakis


Книга "The Odyssey of Kostas Volakis".

1827 RUR

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S. Yadavendra Babu,M. Subbarayudu and Balasiddamuni Pagadala Some Aspects Of Forecasting Techniques In Econometrics


In The present book Chapter - I is an introductory one. It contains the general introduction about the problem of forecasting besides objectives and organization of the research.Chapter - II describes the various basic forecasting models such as Naive, Moving averages, Simple smoothing, Double moving averages and Double smoothing, triple smoothing and adaptive smoothing forecasting models. Chapter - III deals with the Adaptive, Filtering and Combination for forecasting techniques. Chapter - IV gives the need for exponential smoothing forecasting model along with model selection criterion. Chapter - V presents the presents the various autoregressive forecasting models such as ARMA, ARIMA and STARMA models with their link with dynamic linear models .Chapter - VI proposes some new forecasting techniques in econometrics. Chapter - VII epitomizes the conclusions based on the present book..Several relevant articles regarding the forecasting techniques have been presented under a separate title ‘BIBLIOGRAPHY’.

5707 RUR

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Natalia Gotman,Galina Shumilova and Tatiana Starceva Electric load forecasting using an artificial neural networks


Electric load forecasting is an important research field in electric power industry. It plays a crucial role in solving a wide range of tasks of short-term planning and operating control of electric power system operating modes. Load forecasting is carried out in different time spans. Load forecasting within a current day - operating forecasting; one-day-week-month-ahead load forecasting - short-term load forecasting; one-month-quarter-year-ahead load forecasting - long-term load forecasting. So far a great number of both conventional and non-conventional electric load forecasting methods and models have been developed. The work presents research results of electric load forecasting for electrical power systems using artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic as one of the most advanced and perspective directions of solving this task. A theoretical approach to the issues discussed is combined with the data of experimental studies implemented with application of load curves of regional electrical power systems. The book is addressed to specialists and researchers concerned with operational control modes of electric power systems.

2612 RUR

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Pekka Tiusanen Real Estate Price Forecasting in Finland


Master's Thesis from the year 2017 in the subject Business economics - Miscellaneous, , language: English, abstract: There is an abundance of existing literature regarding time series forecasting and the housing market. This thesis evaluates the performance and statistical adequacy of several time series models in the context of real estate price forecasting in Finland. Each statistical model is applied so that forecasts are generated over the seven quarters following the training sample. The resulting forecasts are compared against realized price development. Model evaluation is carried out from the viewpoint of forecasting errors in the validation period, statistical fit, modelling constraints and success in the light of the theoretical framework. It was concluded that scarce ARIMA-based models are suitable for short-term real estate price forecasting in the concerned setting. The models were built on logarithmic I(1) nominal data and augmented with seasonal dummy variables. The Chen & Liu (1993) structural anomaly detection method enhanced statistical fit in the training period and forecasting accuracy in the validation period. The inclusion of a drift parameter generally led to inflated forecasting results in the validation period. The RMSE and MAE error statistics produced by the best ARIMA-based models remained well below 0.5 % in the validation period. The Holt & Winters and I(1) OLS models were also outperformed by the most adept ARIMA-based models. The in...

6277 RUR

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Kostas Akrivos Pandemonium

Faltaits Kostas Αργία : διήγημα

Les Brown, Konstantinos I. Nikolopoulos Justice, Morality and Education. A New Focus in Ethics Education


Книга "Justice, Morality and Education. A New Focus in Ethics in Education".

4177 RUR

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Gately Forecasting Profits


Книга "Forecasting Profits".

4339 RUR

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Stephan Kolassa, Enno Siemsen Demand Forecasting for Managers


Most decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that's why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. For this reason, the authors start out from the very basics and provide a non-technical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. The book also discusses how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it.

4502 RUR

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KOSTAS MURKUDIS Повседневные брюки


плотная ткань, завязки, в тонкую полоску, высокая талия, regular fit, прямой крой брючин, молния и застежка-крючок, множество карманов, брюк

7950 RUR

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Michael Gilliland The Business Forecasting Deal. Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions


Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance. Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process Couched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.

3299.34 RUR

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Craig Shallahamer Forecasting Oracle Performance


Книга "Forecasting Oracle Performance".

6589 RUR

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Dr. Mohamed E. El-Hawary Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems. Load Price Forecasting


A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial arenas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every maximization strategy. This book fills a gap in the literature on this increasingly important topic. Following an introductory chapter offering background information necessary for a full understanding of the forecasting issues covered, this book: Introduces advanced methods of time series forecasting, as well as neural networks Provides in-depth coverage of state-of-the-art power system load forecasting and electricity price forecasting Addresses river flow forecasting based on autonomous neural network models Deals with price forecasting in a competitive market Includes estimation of post-storm restoration times for electric power distribution systems Features contributions from world-renowned experts sharing their insights and expertise in a series of self-contained chapters Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is a valuable resource for practicing engineers, regulators, planners, and consultants working in or concerned with the electric power industry. It is also a must read for senior undergraduates, graduate students, and researchers involved in power system planning and operation.

9603.03 RUR

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Social Forecasting for Company Planning


Книга "Social Forecasting for Company Planning".

7689 RUR

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CLEMENTS HEND, Hendry COMP TO ECON FORECASTING


Книга "COMP TO ECON FORECASTING".

9589 RUR

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Evans Practical Business Forecasting


Книга "Practical Business Forecasting".

9102 RUR

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Sarah Watt Economic and Business Forecasting. Analyzing Interpreting Econometric Results


Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the «ten commandments» for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.

4949.86 RUR

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Michael Gilliland Business Forecasting. Practical Problems and Solutions


A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.

3299.34 RUR

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Alex Kyriakidis, Kostas Maniatis The Majesty Of V


Книга "The Majesty Of Vue.js".

5477 RUR

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Craig Shallahamer Forecasting Oracle Performance


Книга "Forecasting Oracle Performance".

6589 RUR

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William Mallios S. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets. Adaptive Drift Modeling


A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.

9186.94 RUR

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